Major Goof on 1 vs 100?

[SRIV94]

[quote name=\'MrBuddwing\' post=\'135224\' date=\'Oct 21 2006, 12:49 PM\']
Somebody on the tvbarn2 newsgroup posted Ken Jennings' comments from his blog - apparently his experience of being on "1 vs. 100" has been ... mixed.

http://ken-jennings.com/blog/
[/quote]

Terrific read.  When he's right, he's right.

Doug

[thgames65]

[quote name=\'tvwxman\' post=\'135185\' date=\'Oct 21 2006, 07:40 AM\']

How come he wasn't offered the 25% buyout? If he still wasn't sure on what Baby Jessica's last name was (and Gawd knows the lulus in the audience were TREMENDOUS help), then why wasn't he offered a deal to walk?

Isn't that part of the rules? Or not?

[/quote]

The contestant was offered the buyout, but did not take it.  The interchange was edited out.
When the second help was used and the same mobster was randomly selected to explain her incorrect answer again, tape was stopped and the producers conferred to make sure that everything was within the rules.

Tim H.
Mobster #11

[itiparanoid13]

I really don't see why people constantly complain about no incentive to go on.  There is a gigantic incentive: $1,000,000.  If you want to win, you have to take those kinds of risks.  Otherwise, enjoy 1/10th of that (if you don't get that far or aren't brave enough).  I still think the show would be much better with the formula that the Dutch use, though.  I don't know, I might just be greatful that we have this format instead of the one previous.  If anyone was expecting the experience to be like on Millionaire or Jeopardy, they really should have read a bit more online, because I (not connected whatsoever) full expected this taping to be DoND form.  

The major issue, IMO, is the help system.  I've given up on them choosing which one to use.  You can be a genius person and bluff The One into choosing the wrong answer.  This means you chose the wrong answer.  What are you rewarded by?  Nothing.  If I know I'm going to be eliminated, what point is there in me wanting The One gone?  I'd rather them just remove like 50% of the player's bank for using a help, like every other edition on earth uses.

The new money chain should help a bit with getting people to get going more, especially since the money doesn't get truly significant until the 9th or 10th question.  More than anything, I'm just happy that we actually have a trivia show back in primetime, although I am looking foward to The Rich Li$t much more than I was for 1v100.

[ChrisLambert!]

If I were to be chosen for this show, i wouldn't think "YAY a chance to win a million bucks", I'd think "YAY a guaranteed hundred thousand bucks".

I figured I'd get tired of this quickly. Turns out it took just long enough for me to see the returning blonde was wearing slacks this time.

[clemon79]

[quote name=\'itiparanoid13\' post=\'135239\' date=\'Oct 21 2006, 12:33 PM\']
I really don't see why people constantly complain about no incentive to go on.  There is a gigantic incentive: $1,000,000.  If you want to win, you have to take those kinds of risks.  
[/quote]
Which goes back to a point I've made many times before that seems to be lost on those people who get all starry-eyed at the number "1,000,000": most people CANNOT FATHOM THAT KIND OF MONEY. Chri$ L. got it just right.

Psychologically, the difference between a couple hundred thousand and that million is minimal if not nonexistent, since most people have never seen that kind of money anyhow. So, basically, the question they are being asked is "do you want to risk losing a life-changing amount of money for a small chance of winning...a life-changing amount of money?" The answer to that is almost always gonna be "to me, they're functionally the same, so why would I take that chance?"

And THIS is why DoND (and, really, 1 vs 100) is horribly broken.

[TimK2003]

[quote name=\'bandit_bobby\' post=\'135198\' date=\'Oct 21 2006, 10:07 AM\']
The loser last night was INCREDIBLY STUPID. He should have realized that there was no chance in this lifetime that only four would say what he thought was the right answer. You have to play the odds. Incredibly stupid.
[/quote]

That and the fact that of the non-four who did not choose Jessica Lynch was #13, Jen Kenn,...er Ken Jennings!  

There was your bonus lifeline right there!  If you were paying attention to the Mob board and saw that Ken was in the vast majority who did not pick Jessica Lynch, that should be a big hint that you *might* be wrong.

And just when I thought that Ken Jennings could be considered a player's unofficial lifeline, the wheel came up Red 1!!!

[NickS]

[quote name=\'thgames65\' post=\'135238\' date=\'Oct 21 2006, 02:27 PM\']
[quote name=\'tvwxman\' post=\'135185\' date=\'Oct 21 2006, 07:40 AM\']

How come he wasn't offered the 25% buyout? If he still wasn't sure on what Baby Jessica's last name was (and Gawd knows the lulus in the audience were TREMENDOUS help), then why wasn't he offered a deal to walk?

Isn't that part of the rules? Or not?

[/quote]

The contestant was offered the buyout, but did not take it.  The interchange was edited out.
When the second help was used and the same mobster was randomly selected to explain her incorrect answer again, tape was stopped and the producers conferred to make sure that everything was within the rules.

Tim H.
Mobster #11
[/quote]

Thank you for the update, Tim -- I don't know what to shake my head at first... how shitty the reports of contestant/audience culling that the shows have been doing, seeing how bad GSN's Chain Reaction contestants are or last night's loser not comprehending on how to use a help.

[cweaver]

[quote name=\'bandit_bobby\' post=\'135198\' date=\'Oct 21 2006, 10:07 AM\']
The loser last night was INCREDIBLY STUPID. He should have realized that there was no chance in this lifetime that only four would say what he thought was the right answer. You have to play the odds. Incredibly stupid.
[/quote]

I have to take exception to that extreme judgment.  "Incredibly stupid" is flat out wrong here.  I question his strategy to play against the numbers and to use both of his helps, and I'm sure he's now embarrassed about his not-so-great job of keeping up with current events in 1987 and 2003.  But I've seen far, far worse on game shows.  Mind you, I knew the correct answer was "McClure" (Lynch was the captured and rescued reservist in Iraq), but that woman who talked about the family discussion at her house was very convincing.  Obviously she was misleading at best (held back the "I was only seven" part, not smart for her) but I could see him fixating on that one argument and that's what cost him.  

"Incredibly stupid" would be...

"During which month do most pregnant women start to show?"
"September."

"Name a time most people wake up."
"Morning."

"Name something you put in tea."
"A teabag."

You're on Password and you just get the password...and the first clue you give is the exact password.  Even worse: doing it again in the same show.  (See Paar, Jack.)

Chain Reaction words: HOT on top of PINK.  Contestant says "I dunno, 'hot pinky'?" Correct answer: Hot Pink.  (Or any variation of this.)

From Greed: "Chuck, I've followed your career pretty closely and I'm sure you never hosted Wheel of Fortune."

I could go on.

[pyrfan]

Gotta agree with Dixon. I will admit that once that guy decided to go with "Jessica Lynch" as his answer, I said, "Oh, you poor schmuck" -- but that was because I had heard the name "Jessica McClure" ad nauseam in the late '80s and the name "Jessica Lynch" ad nauseam just a few years ago. However, he wasn't incredibly stupid; he was listening to his gut. How many times on "Match Game" have we seen a contestant in the Audience Match choose their own answer instead of choosing one given by Brett, Charles, or Richard, only to have their answer be the $500 response? Or seen a contestant disagree with Charley Weaver on a Secret Square question, only to be right?

One of the biggest things they always said on game shows (although maybe they don't say this anymore) was to go with your first instinct and follow your gut. I will concede that with only 4 people agreeing with his answer that early in the game, he might have wanted to think it out logically before sticking with his original answer. However, think of how mad he would have been (and how much more we'd be ragging on him) if he went against his gut and was wrong.

This may have been an error in judgment or logic, but incredibly stupid? Not in my opinion.


Brendan

[Matt Ottinger]

The most interesting line from Ken's expose:
"Many not-yet-eliminated Mob players just wandered off and refused to come back."

How bad is your game when people just don't feel like playing anymore?

In the abstract, I do like the rule that mob members can theoretically stay even after defeating the One.  A decent player with a lucky streak could eventually run up some serious pocket change.   Still, just pocket change.  Unless you're a local with absolutely nothing else to do, I'm not sure the long, uncomfortable hours are worth the chance of maybe winning a few hundred dollars.

--Matt

[itiparanoid13]

Could this be fixed by doing what, yet again, each other country on earth does: the new One comes from the surviving mob members?

[mcsittel]

[quote name=\'pyrfan\' post=\'135269\' date=\'Oct 21 2006, 09:20 PM\']
This may have been an error in judgment or logic, but incredibly stupid? Not in my opinion.
[/quote]

Let's throw some Monty Hall statistics in to the mix:

When he was presented with three choices, the probabilities of each answer being correct, should the person randomly guess, were:

A. McClure (1/3), B. Lynch (1/3), C. Sierra (1/3).

If the mob's choice of answers were completely random, on average 18 people should answer each: A, B and C.  The probability of 4 or less people in a group of 54 randomly selecting Lynch is 7.20E-6, or about 1 in 138,825.  Of course, not every member of the mob chose at random!  To see his answer so unpopular should have been cause for alarm (didn't he ever watch WWTBAM's "Ask the Audience"?)

Yes, the contestant had no feel for the Sierra vs. McClure support in the mob, but the minute Sierra was removed, the simple probabilties shifted to:

A. McClure (2/3), B. Lynch (1/3).

Hmmm... NOW what should he have done?
===
On a separate note-perhaps someone can clarify for me: is the selection of 2 mob members meant to be random?  I can't recall the disclaimer... is it set to be that the two picked must have different answers?  Must one of the two picked match the contestant's response?  

Similarly, what if neither of the two chosen agree with the player's response (e.g., the mob votes unanimously for a different response than the player)?

[thgames65]

[quote name=\'mcsittel\' post=\'135276\' date=\'Oct 21 2006, 11:17 PM\']

On a separate note-perhaps someone can clarify for me: is the selection of 2 mob members meant to be random?  I can't recall the disclaimer... is it set to be that the two picked must have different answers?  Must one of the two picked match the contestant's response?  

Similarly, what if neither of the two chosen agree with the player's response (e.g., the mob votes unanimously for a different response than the player)?
[/quote]

One mob member is randomly selected from each of two groups:  those who chose the correct answer and those who did not.  So the player was going to hear from someone who chose McClure and from somebody else, it just was his poor luck that he heard from the same mistaken Mobster from his first Help.  It was possible that he could have heard from someone who picked Sierra and someone who picked McClure.

I have no idea what they would have done if the Mob had been unanimous.


Tim H.

[Timsterino]

This is not a complaint, just reality. It is not worth it to be a mob member, period. The $1,000,000 prize will NEVER be given to a mob member. If you are a one that is a different story.

 Unless you are a local and have nothing better to do, it is a complete waste of time. I will fill in more later.

Tim :-)

[SRIV94]

[quote name=\'mcsittel\' post=\'135276\' date=\'Oct 21 2006, 11:17 PM\']
Of course, not every member of the mob chose at random!  To see his answer so unpopular should have been cause for alarm (didn't he ever watch WWTBAM's "Ask the Audience"?)
[/quote]
Which was my point.  With all due respect to Dixon and Brendan, an immediate red flag should have been triggered.

While there have been moments where a contestant goes against the grain on MG or HSq (to use the examples cited), and while sometimes they can luck into making the right call, more often than not when they go against the grain it's because they know an answer flat out cold that's better than the one provided.  That was not the case here.  Here was a guy who was so clueless to the answer that he didn't pick up on the obvious clues that his answer might have been wrong.

I won't stoop to El Bandito's level and call him "extremely stupid."  But he clearly deserved to lose, because he didn't weigh all of the factors properly.  We rag on people who make extremely poor judgment decisions on TPiR (which happens with a fair degree of frequency).  This isn't all that different.

Doug