Now this is a DoND stunt that I like...

[Chuck Sutton]

[quote name=\'Matt Ottinger\' post=\'179031\' date=\'Feb 26 2008, 03:26 PM\']
I figured there was an easy way to get there, and that makes perfect sense.  But if that's right, then the odds on winning the million, even with 13 cases in play, is actually less than one in four, since nobody in his right mind is going to turn down $500,000 to go all the way.
[/quote]

Except when it was 50/50 at the end they offered 400,000.   The right mind may be the key.  With some of the contestants they have had;  I think they can find someone who will say even "that is not enough to give up my once in a lifetime 50/50 shot at a million dollars."

Again the last two weeks the odds of winning a million dollars was 50/50.   What we are trying to figuare out here is the odds that someone will take those odds.   These are different numbers.

It's like the lottery.   If there was a game where there are two numbers to drawn one will get a million dollar prize; the odds are 50/50 you will win. Now The ticket will cost you  betweeen $400,000 or 500,000.   That does not change the odds of winning.


What people here are tyring to find out is the odds someone will buy a ticket.

[Matt Ottinger]

[quote name=\'Chuck Sutton\' post=\'179056\' date=\'Feb 26 2008, 05:00 PM\']Again the last two weeks the odds of winning a million dollars was 50/50.   What we are trying to figuare out here is the odds that someone will take those odds.   These are different numbers.[/quote]
You make a very good point that I still cannot agree with.  Part of the game is the fact that virtually no one will give up the sure-thing (which yes, usually falls somewhere in the $400K to $500K range) for a 50/50 chance at the million.  Therefore the odds that someone will win a million dollars on the show remains less than 50/50.  

The odds that somebody could have won the million are 50/50 but the raw probability is only one part of the equation.  And while Chris (and you, and others) are right in saying that there's no way you can put a precise number on whether a player will take the chance, the fact that there's ANY chance at all that the player will bail first means that the odds of the million being won remains less than the odds of a million dollar case merely being picked.

[uncamark]

Here's the home page for the Estonian version:

http://www.tv3.ee/content/blogcategory/98/113/

Looks like they have the suitcase babes there.

And this is the current home page in South Africa (the Google profile listed a "model poll," which should answer that question):

http://www.mnet.co.za/profiles/mnet/dondstatic.aspx

I find it interesting that MNet requires its contestants to be members of what looks like their version of MySpace/Facebook.  I assume there's nothing illegal about that here, but that people wouldn't be happy if that was tried here.

[Joe Mello]

[quote name=\'itiparanoid13\' post=\'179055\' date=\'Feb 26 2008, 04:57 PM\']I would have figured it would be a nice way to at least test the waters.[/quote]
See, that would be intelligent.  Therefore, it's not happening.

[weaklink75]

[quote name=\'itiparanoid13\' post=\'179055\' date=\'Feb 26 2008, 04:57 PM\']
I'm not really shocked, but a bit saddened that they didn't attempt to try one of the daytime sets, like the British one.  The syndicated version is essentially going to be the British version (22 cases, $250K, contestants holding cases), and I would have figured it would be a nice way to at least test the waters.
[/quote]


I have to think if they were going to go to one of the daytime sets, it would be the Australian one- since I would suspect that's what they'll model the daytime version here after (with Second Chance, Double/Nothing, 2nd Chance, Megaguess, etc.), since it's different enough to make the daytime version unique from primetime....


here's the Philippine DonD site BTW (they're between seasons as has been mentioned)

http://www.kdond.ph/

[TLEberle]

[quote name=\'clemon79\' post=\'179048\' date=\'Feb 26 2008, 01:31 PM\'][quote name=\'TLEberle\' post=\'179046\' date=\'Feb 26 2008, 01:24 PM\']People like you can't exist in the wild. They just can't.
[/quote]
Except he's *right*. (And you KNOW how much it kills me to admit that.) If you remove the undefinable "probability of riding the storm out," it's a straight 50/50 shot.

The problem is that you can't remove that, and you can't quantify that.[/quote]What, he's right that the odds of calling a coin flip correctly are 0.5? Yeah, he is, but so what? That's trivial. Chuck is trying to jump from that to "the odds of winning..." and they're not so. We went through that in the other thread, but apparently there are still people who just don't get it. His adding of "the question is how much they have to pay you to give up that chance" negates the previous statement.

Deal or No Deal is what it is. It isn't "a lottery that sells chances," it's a game show that gives out money, it costs nothing to play (other than expenses). You can't just change the rules to suit a particular argument. It makes as much sense as trying to quantify the confidence level of a Phone-a-Friend: it's either Certain or Not, and the in between doesn't make a lick of difference. There's no way to objectively quantify whether a player will Deal or Not Deal, because there are far too many variables.

Either Chuck has a tenuous grasp of how probability and odds really work (and in that case I worry that he's practicing law and trying to convince people of falsehoods) or he DOES know, and it just trying to dream up convoluted situations to suit his particular needs. (Which is possibly more distressing, I don't know.) And it's frustrating to have to explain these concepts again and again because people don't know the difference between odds and probability, or pot odds against a one-time event.

[weaklink75]

Here's the official release... I'm hoping they are doing 2 games an episode, because 2 hours for one game? That would be a bit of overkill....

[Brig Bother]

The US show travels to other countries which have modelled themselves on the US show - not a big deal really, although the sets will be a bit smaller.

[uncamark]

[quote name=\'Brig Bother\' post=\'179268\' date=\'Feb 28 2008, 12:08 PM\']
The US show travels to other countries which have modelled themselves on the US show - not a big deal really, although the sets will be a bit smaller.
[/quote]

And the host of the Philippines version who makes some of the American contestants look like models of sanity.  

[NickS]

[quote name=\'itiparanoid13\' post=\'179055\' date=\'Feb 26 2008, 03:57 PM\']
The syndicated version is essentially going to be the British version (22 cases, $250K, contestants holding cases)[/quote]

Alex:  Have you seen a pitch tape that says this is going to be like the British version or are you speculating wildly?

[clemon79]

[quote name=\'TeppanYaki\' post=\'179366\' date=\'Feb 29 2008, 02:00 AM\']
Alex:  Have you seen a pitch tape that says this is going to be like the British version or are you speculating wildly?[/quote]
I suspect he means with regard to the three aspects he pointed out. I'm sure our show won't have the gravitas that the Brit show does.

[itiparanoid13]

haha, of course not.  Ours won't be nearly as classy or good as the British version.  You know they'll find some stupid way to screw it up.

I'm not going to post wild unconfirmed ideas here, that's just stupid and no way to earn any respect or be remotely liked.  NBC issued a press release on October 8th saying the 22 cases.  I'm trying to find the whole 3 model thing and $250,000 (I know it's around here somewhere), but I know for a fact that's been published.

Edit: Ah, found it in two excessively-annoying Variety articles.

Beyond throwing colored bricks onto the set and getting Richard Branson to host, I don't know how much closer you can get to the British format.

[lobster]

...so being a half-hour does that mean they won't have time to put us through the family/supporters crap?

whenever i've tivo'd dond, i've noticed if you skip over all the family bs chatter and schtick, you can whittle the core of the show down to a svelte six minutes

[clemon79]

[quote name=\'lobster\' post=\'179387\' date=\'Feb 29 2008, 09:08 AM\']
whenever i've tivo'd dond, i've noticed if you skip over all the family bs chatter and schtick, you can whittle the core of the show down to a svelte six minutes
[/quote]
Whenever my Tivo grabs DoND (you'd think it would learn by now, considering how many times I've rubbed its nose in the shiat), I delete it and use those six minutes on something useful.

[lobster]

[quote name=\'clemon79\' post=\'179414\' date=\'Feb 29 2008, 01:49 PM\']
[quote name=\'lobster\' post=\'179387\' date=\'Feb 29 2008, 09:08 AM\']
whenever i've tivo'd dond, i've noticed if you skip over all the family bs chatter and schtick, you can whittle the core of the show down to a svelte six minutes
[/quote]
Whenever my Tivo grabs DoND (you'd think it would learn by now, considering how many times I've rubbed its nose in the shiat), I delete it and use those six minutes on something useful.
[/quote]

hah, yeah, sometimes triple thumbs-down just isn't enough for tivo to take the hint, you basically have to plug your tivo power cord into one of those automatic lamp timers and force its power to be cut for that hour :b

/nbc will still find a way around that