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OK - we've analyzed the production of the show quite well - and we all seem to agree there's not much of a "game" there.
However, if you were a contestant on the show what would your strategy be?
On the first night's show, when it came down to the final four of $75, $500, $50,000 and $500,000, the bank offer was $138,000.
I would have taken the $138,000 at that point.
How about you - would any of you have taken the bank offer earlier, or would you have gone on to see if the big one was in your suitcase?
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[quote name=\'Ian Wallis\' date=\'Dec 20 2005, 09:14 AM\']On the first night's show, when it came down to the final four of $75, $500, $50,000 and $500,000, the bank offer was $138,000.
I would have taken the $138,000 at that point.
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I only have a 25% chance of doing better than $138,000. I'd take the money--without hesitation.
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I probably would have taken the $138,000, but one could argue that you have a 75% chance of getting a better offer from the bank if you continue. I wouldn't have taken any bank offer before that point.
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As my wife and I were watching, we realized that the only play-at-home element is to decide -- honestly -- where (or if) you would take the Deal as you're watching the show. I personally pulled the trigger early, at $53,000 I think it was. My wife "stopped" at $90,000. Both of us beat the studio contestant, but of course the Bank ended up going even higher.
I absolutely would have taken the $138,000 with four cases left, but if I'm playing the game honestly, I didn't have the chance to make that decision.
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If I was on the show, my exit fee would be $100K unless I was doing particularly well and had no chance to lose that amount.
I would have left last night with $138K. The odds were spot-on for her to walk just then. That's a LOT of cash.
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I would have definitely stopped at the $138K offer. With the chance at $1M or $500K, some people get caught up in those high figures and forget how much $138K is. That's more than most people make in a year.
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[quote name=\'TV Favorites\' date=\'Dec 20 2005, 11:49 AM\']That's more than most people make in a year.
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It goes back three years, but according to this page (http://\"http://www.census.gov/hhes/income/income02/statemhi.html\"), the highest average median income was in Maryland, $55,912. $138,000 is 2.47 times greater. Comparatively, its 4.59 times greater than West Virginia's $30,072.
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[quote name=\'Ian Wallis\' date=\'Dec 20 2005, 06:14 AM\']How about you - would any of you have taken the bank offer earlier, or would you have gone on to see if the big one was in your suitcase?
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I was ready to get the hell out the offer before the $138K...what was it, $117K or so? I thought she was an abject fool for not walking at $138K, and it pleased me greatly to see her get screwed.
Matt's right, though...the topheavyness of the board really makes the first three or so bank offers a completely moot point, because it's almost a dead certainty that the next offer is going to be higher. It seems like in an effort to get Mo Money out there, the NBC folks don't really realize they broke the game.
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I thought the game strategy here would be:
1. Remove coin from pocket.
2. Flip it.
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Upon the $138,000 offer, I either had a 100% chance of avoiding the $500k (If I had it in my case,) or I had a 67% chance of avoiding the $500k (If I didn't.) No way in hell am I risking about 80% of my money on a 67% shot.
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I'd go forward until I'm at risk of removing that last huge case, the point where my offer will absolutely drop through the floor if I choose that one. Last night, that was the $138K offer.
You'd have to be insanely unlucky to remove the top two or three left at one shot and not reach that point.
I think most games will come down to this point.
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As my wife and I were watching, we realized that the only play-at-home element is to decide -- honestly -- where (or if) you would take the Deal as you're watching the show. I personally pulled the trigger early, at $53,000 I think it was. My wife "stopped" at $90,000.
OK, now how much more nonsense did you have to sit through after making those decisions before the game on TV came to a conclusion?
The game drags on too long, no doubt about it. I hate to keep harking back to LMAD, but they had the pacing right. You can take the refrigerator, what's behind the curtain, or the money Monty is offering you. Whatever the contestant decides, you have resolution within a minute or two.
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[quote name=\'chris319\' date=\'Dec 20 2005, 07:08 PM\']
As my wife and I were watching, we realized that the only play-at-home element is to decide -- honestly -- where (or if) you would take the Deal as you're watching the show. I personally pulled the trigger early, at $53,000 I think it was. My wife "stopped" at $90,000.
OK, now how much more nonsense did you have to sit through after making those decisions before the game on TV came to a conclusion?[/quote]
Gotta love TiVo.
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[quote name=\'Gromit\' date=\'Dec 20 2005, 06:45 PM\']I'd go forward until I'm at risk of removing that last huge case, the point where my offer will absolutely drop through the floor if I choose that one. Last night, that was the $138K offer.[/quote]
If I understand you right, I think you're saying that you'd bail when you got to the point that there was only one huge case left. That's actually a pretty good strategy, since that lone case is likely still going to be enough to create a large bank. Of course, depending on what round you're in, it might be possible that you'll be forced to reveal all the huge cases before you get your next offer.
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[quote name=\'clemon79\' date=\'Dec 20 2005, 11:00 AM\']Matt's right, though...the topheavyness of the board really makes the first three or so bank offers a completely moot point, because it's almost a dead certainty that the next offer is going to be higher. It seems like in an effort to get Mo Money out there, the NBC folks don't really realize they broke the game.
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Top-heavy may be a bit of an understatement. The average value of a case is $131,477.54 at the beginning of the game and the average value of remaining cases should go up from there.
While $131,477.54 actually sounds like a good baseline to consider when given an offer, does it actually mean anything once you know more about the situation and the expected value of your case rather than a case?
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[quote name=\'Matt Ottinger\' date=\'Dec 20 2005, 08:58 PM\']If I understand you right, I think you're saying that you'd bail when you got to the point that there was only one huge case left. That's actually a pretty good strategy, since that lone case is likely still going to be enough to create a large bank. Of course, depending on what round you're in, it might be possible that you'll be forced to reveal all the huge cases before you get your next offer.
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Yes, you understand my point, it's the same as in the other thread you posted questioning tonight's strategy. The guy had 2 big cases left, but only had to select one. It was silly to stop then, because he had a tremendous shot at removing the one small case, leaving him with a guaranteed huge payday. At worst, his next offer was going to be very near the one he took.
I think based on the number of cases and the values, that you can get to the point of picking single cases every time unless you have the worst luck in the world. And if you can do that, it's entirely within your control, and you can guarantee that you'll get a great payout every single time.
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Now, as for Tuesday night's game in which the Banker offered the contestant $240,000, I was practically screaming at the TV: "TAKE IT! TAKE IT!" The contestant had already blown his chance for the $1,000,000. The highest amount of money he could have won was $500,000, he's offered slightly less than half that as a sure thing, and he *doesn't* take it? What a maroon! (Yes, "maroon." I'm trying to be polite.)
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Does Howie know what's in the briefcases, or is he told via IFB or something? I find it hard to believe that it's coincidental that he says "Please let there be $300 in that case!" then BAM! $300! Then the same exact thing for the $750 briefcase, which was on the next pick.
Side note: It's funny seeing the rooting section give "hand pounds" to Howie. Yeah, I know it's b/c Howie hates shaking hands, but it's funny seeing a 50- or 60-something relative awkwardly hand pound like teenagers. :-)
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I noticed that too in regards to those case values. It's like he's psychic or something even though he "clains" he doesn't know what's in the player's case or the ones the models are holding. If he did, then that might lead to an investigation as to who "leaked" the values out there beforehand.
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[quote name=\'fostergray82\' date=\'Dec 21 2005, 02:49 AM\']Does Howie know what's in the briefcases, or is he told via IFB or something? I find it hard to believe that it's coincidental that he says "Please let there be $300 in that case!" then BAM! $300! Then the same exact thing for the $750 briefcase, which was on the next pick.
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In both cases, it was the lowest value left on the board, as I recall. I don't think it was anything more than coincidence, or, at worst, a retake.
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[quote name=\'MrBuddwing\' date=\'Dec 21 2005, 03:32 AM\']Now, as for Tuesday night's game in which the Banker offered the contestant $240,000, I was practically screaming at the TV: "TAKE IT! TAKE IT!" The contestant had already blown his chance for the $1,000,000. The highest amount of money he could have won was $500,000, he's offered slightly less than half that as a sure thing, and he *doesn't* take it? What a maroon! (Yes, "maroon." I'm trying to be polite.)
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Well that's up for judgement. Basically the guy had 3 boxes that were more than 240k and only 1 box less. That's 75% chance of making more money if you give up the offer. In the end, he was right. He was extremely unlucky just like he had said. The odds of having that 10k in his box were very very poor. Do this with a friend, pick three numbers between 1-4 and ask your friend to choose a number and see how much you can match. You'll match a surprising amount of times and that was his odds to make more money.
Personally I would have taken 1 more box after there were 3 left to try to get rid of the 10k. If I couldn't have gotten rid of the 10k, I would have quit when there was 1 high number and 10k left. Yes you lose a lot of money from the banker, but you also have a chance to knock out that 10k and get a HUGE payday.
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Making the right decision on whether or not to take a specific deal would seem to depend on how much one believes in an old moral once offered by that famed spinner of fables, Aesop: Never turn down a sure thing for a possibility.
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[quote name=\'xibit777\' date=\'Dec 21 2005, 02:44 PM\']Well that's up for judgement. Basically the guy had 3 boxes that were more than 240k and only 1 box less. That's 75% chance of making more money if you give up the offer. In the end, he was right. He was extremely unlucky just like he had said. The odds of having that 10k in his box were very very poor. Do this with a friend, pick three numbers between 1-4 and ask your friend to choose a number and see how much you can match. You'll match a surprising amount of times and that was his odds to make more money.[/quote]
I ran this experiment, and after about five hours, I was indeed astonished to find that I had a 74% chance of matching my friend! (Plus or minus 2%.)
Oh, wait, I misspoke. My ex-friend.