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The Game Show Forum => The Big Board => Topic started by: weaklink75 on August 13, 2008, 11:13:52 AM

Title: Fall '08 GS prediction thread...
Post by: weaklink75 on August 13, 2008, 11:13:52 AM
So we've gotten a lot of news about changes on WoF, TPIR (possibly), and WWTBAM. Plus we have DoND going to syndication, and the news that primetime will give away the big one at some point. So let's predict some things, shall we?

1- YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on Wheel of Fortune this season.

(I say yes- since the million dollar wedge is on the wheel for the first three rounds, I would think it would get picked up relatively often. Keeping it till the end of the game and then landing on the million dollar envelope and solving the puzzle is a different story, but the odds aren't that outrageous...though I suspect we might see a couple of million dollar LOSSES this season as well)

2- YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on WWTBAM this season.

(I also say yes- it's been a while, I think we're probably due for one- but all the rules changes do give me a little pause)

3- YES or NO- DoND will give away the top prize in a NORMAL game (no extra top prize case gimmicks) in either Syndicated or primetime this season.

(I say no- the odds of the layout in a standard game being favorable to go for it are too low)

4- YES or NO- Someone will win at least $500,000 in normal gameplay on J! this season.

(I say no- we might get a hot streak by someone, but you probably need 20+ wins to get that much, and I don't know if someone can go that long again)


5- YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on EITHER Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader or Don't Forget the Lyrics this season.

(I say yes, and it's more likely to happen on 5th Grader since you get more information- at least the subject of the MDQ- before you have to make the decision to go for the million)


6-YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on EITHER Million Dollar Password or TPIR MDS...

(I say no- TPIR is more likely, but the shrinking of the value in the showcase to win the million from $1000 to $500 will make it a lot more difficult)

7- YES or NO- At least one NEW Game Show (one that has not aired on a major network before in this era) will debut during the season.

(I say no- UNLESS the actors end up striking, then you might see it happen)..
Title: Fall '08 GS prediction thread...
Post by: xavier45 on August 13, 2008, 11:46:20 AM
[quote name=\'weaklink75\' post=\'193894\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 11:13 AM\']
6-YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on EITHER Million Dollar Password or TPIR MDS...
[/quote]
Buzzerblog reported that on the next run of MDP, $250,000 will be a safe haven. So pretty much, everybody who wins $250,000 will be going for the million. But it will still be quite hard to win it with some of those words.
Title: Fall '08 GS prediction thread...
Post by: clemon79 on August 13, 2008, 11:58:14 AM
[quote name=\'weaklink75\' post=\'193894\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 08:13 AM\']
(I say yes- since the million dollar wedge is on the wheel for the first three rounds, I would think it would get picked up relatively often.[/quote]
It's a single slot, right?

How often does the $10,000 get won?

Great. Now divide that by eight. (Figure multiply by three rounds because it will be out there longer, and then divide by 24 for the chances of spinning it on the bonus wheel.) And then realize that because whoever gets it has to avoid Bankrupt for the rest of the show AND win the game, the odds are even a good bit poorer than THAT.
Title: Fall '08 GS prediction thread...
Post by: BrandonFG on August 13, 2008, 12:25:36 PM
[quote name=\'weaklink75\' post=\'193894\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 11:13 AM\']
7- YES or NO- At least one NEW Game Show (one that has not aired on a major network before in this era) will debut during the season.
[/quote]
Do foreign imports count? ;-)

IMO, your other scenarios seem a bit too open-ended for me to make a guess either way. However, on this one, I will at least vote yes. The genre is popular again, and if the networks can save a buck on programming, they will go for a timeslot, esp. if a show tanks early, and you know one will. And don't forget, GSN has trotted out more and more original games over the past few years, so I think they might have a new concept up their sleeve.

And like you mentioned, with a possibly impending strike, it's very likely.
Title: Fall '08 GS prediction thread...
Post by: weaklink75 on August 13, 2008, 12:56:18 PM
[quote name=\'fostergray82\' post=\'193900\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 12:25 PM\']
[quote name=\'weaklink75\' post=\'193894\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 11:13 AM\']
7- YES or NO- At least one NEW Game Show (one that has not aired on a major network before in this era) will debut during the season.
[/quote]
Do foreign imports count? ;-)

IMO, your other scenarios seem a bit too open-ended for me to make a guess either way. However, on this one, I will at least vote yes. The genre is popular again, and if the networks can save a buck on programming, they will go for a timeslot, esp. if a show tanks early, and you know one will. And don't forget, GSN has trotted out more and more original games over the past few years, so I think they might have a new concept up their sleeve.

And like you mentioned, with a possibly impending strike, it's very likely.
[/quote]


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Title: Fall '08 GS prediction thread...
Post by: tpirfan28 on August 13, 2008, 01:04:10 PM
[quote name=\'weaklink75\' post=\'193894\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 11:13 AM\']
1- YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on Wheel of Fortune this season.
2- YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on WWTBAM this season.
3- YES or NO- DoND will give away the top prize in a NORMAL game (no extra top prize case gimmicks) in either Syndicated or primetime this season.
4- YES or NO- Someone will win at least $500,000 in normal gameplay on J! this season.
5- YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on EITHER Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader or Don't Forget the Lyrics this season.
6-YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on EITHER Million Dollar Password or TPIR MDS...
7- YES or NO- At least one NEW Game Show (one that has not aired on a major network before in this era) will debut during the season.
[/quote]
1) Yes.  And I'll call February Sweeps.
2) No.  I bet we'll see a couple million-dollar questions, though.
3) No.
4) Yes.  And there will be daily Ken Jennings comparisons, too.
5) No.
6) Yes, on TPIR, and I'll call on One Away or Cover Up.
7) Only if it gives Ant and Dec something better than Wanna Bet.
Title: Fall '08 GS prediction thread...
Post by: parliboy on August 13, 2008, 01:23:13 PM
[quote name=\'weaklink75\' post=\'193894\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 10:13 AM\']1- YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on Wheel of Fortune this season.[/quote]
More likely No.  The odds of holding the wedge at the end is slightly better than the odds of holding the wild card (the only difference being the ability to spend the wild card).  Given that, it's more likely than not that there will be a time this year when the million is landed on.  But given the bonus round win rate, that time is more likely to be a loss.

Quote
2- YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on WWTBAM this season.
No.  As long as the ratings hold up, no one's in a rush to give away a million dollars

Quote
3- YES or NO- DoND will give away the top prize in a NORMAL game (no extra top prize case gimmicks) in either Syndicated or primetime this season.
Yes.  The American contestants are less risk-averse than the Brits, and given the way things go on their show, I can see it happen.

Quote
4- YES or NO- Someone will win at least $500,000 in normal gameplay on J! this season.
No, for the reasons that you stated

Quote
5- YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on EITHER Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader or Don't Forget the Lyrics this season.
No.  Not enough shows in either series for it to be LIKELY.  Though it certainly is possible.

Quote
6-YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on EITHER Million Dollar Password or TPIR MDS...
Yes.  The $500 range makes the game more difficult, but remember that one of the two showcase wins was within $500.  Also, they've made the $1,000,000 in Password much more attainable for next season.  For any other show, I'd hate this.  But since you're beholden to a celebrity, I'm actually OK with the attempt at the $1,000,000 as a true bonus round.

Quote
7- YES or NO- At least one NEW Game Show (one that has not aired on a major network before in this era) will debut during the season.
Yes, because we already know about some that will.  Pay attention to the news, my friend.
Title: Fall '08 GS prediction thread...
Post by: MikeK on August 13, 2008, 02:15:01 PM
[quote name=\'weaklink75\' post=\'193894\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 11:13 AM\']1- YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on Wheel of Fortune this season.
2- YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on WWTBAM this season.
3- YES or NO- DoND will give away the top prize in a NORMAL game (no extra top prize case gimmicks) in either Syndicated or primetime this season.
4- YES or NO- Someone will win at least $500,000 in normal gameplay on J! this season.
5- YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on EITHER Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader or Don't Forget the Lyrics this season.
6-YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on EITHER Million Dollar Password or TPIR MDS...
7- YES or NO- At least one NEW Game Show (one that has not aired on a major network before in this era) will debut during the season.[/quote]
1:  No.  Avoiding the bankrupts, winning the game with the million wedge adding nothing to your score, and then hitting a 1 in 24 shot is too much to happen.  Discarding Mr. Lemon's logic since I don't think it's accurate and it has too many holes, how many times has the wild card made it to bonus land in the last year?  Take that number and divide it by 24.  That would be a fairer estimate on how many people land on the million in the bonus round.
2:  No.  It hasn't happened in 5 years.  I don't see anything changing that trend.
3:  Yes.  With lower stakes on the syndicated version, I can see someone taking the risk.
4:  No.
5:  Yes, on 5th Grader.  DFTL's million dollar song is too much of a crap shoot.
6:  No.
7:  Yes.  I have a hunch a flavor of the month in early '09 will be Golden Balls, another game requiring no knowledge and utilizes the Friend or Foe trust box method to determine the winner(s).  Outside of the split/steal final round and lengthy rounds of theorizing about who's lying, I've enjoyed what I've seen of Golden Balls.
Title: Fall '08 GS prediction thread...
Post by: weaklink75 on August 13, 2008, 02:19:21 PM
[quote name=\'parliboy\' post=\'193904\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 01:23 PM\']

Yes, because we already know about some that will.  Pay attention to the news, my friend.
[/quote]

I probably should have been more specific...I meant to say a show on one of the Big 4 3/4 networks (CW is a half a network at best, My Network TV is a 1/4 of one...)

I agree about Golden Balls as well...if you tweaked the final round a little it would be really interesting I think (say if both decide to steal in the final, the two people who were eliminated earlier split the final total instead)- and imagine if Fox picked it up what the commercials would be like- double entendres everywhere...
Title: Fall '08 GS prediction thread...
Post by: Mr. Armadillo on August 13, 2008, 02:27:02 PM
[quote name=\'MikeK\' post=\'193906\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 01:15 PM\']
1:  No.  Avoiding the bankrupts, winning the game with the million wedge adding nothing to your score, and then hitting a 1 in 24 shot is too much to happen.  Discarding Mr. Lemon's logic since I don't think it's accurate and it has too many holes, how many times has the wild card made it to bonus land in the last year?  Take that number and divide it by 24.  That would be a fairer estimate on how many people land on the million in the bonus round.[/quote]
Divide by another three, since the Million 'sliver' is just one part of the Bankrupt-Million-Bankrupt wedge, whereas the Wild Card gets a whole wedge.
Title: Fall '08 GS prediction thread...
Post by: Joe Mello on August 13, 2008, 02:28:27 PM
[quote name=\'weaklink75\' post=\'193894\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 10:13 AM\']1- YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on Wheel of Fortune this season.[/quote]
I'm leaning towards yes.  While it is mathematically improbable, I'm willing to bet that the million goes to a good player who solves more than half of the non-toss-up puzzles and is able to control the wheel long enough so that winning isn't an issue.

Quote
2- YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on WWTBAM this season.
No; Very no if the miniscule time limits are involved.

Quote
3- YES or NO- DoND will give away the top prize in a NORMAL game (no extra top prize case gimmicks) in either Syndicated or primetime this season.
Because of recent news, this question takes an interesting twist, but I say yes.

Quote
4- YES or NO- Someone will win at least $500,000 in normal gameplay on J! this season.
No.  We may get another 10+ game winner, but they'll probably make half that.

Quote
5- YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on EITHER Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader or Don't Forget the Lyrics this season.
No.  

Quote
6-YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on EITHER Million Dollar Password or TPIR MDS...
Yes.

Quote
7- YES or NO- At least one NEW Game Show (one that has not aired on a major network before in this era) will debut during the season.
Duh.
Title: Fall '08 GS prediction thread...
Post by: Jimmy Owen on August 13, 2008, 02:40:24 PM
No on all.
Title: Fall '08 GS prediction thread...
Post by: clemon79 on August 13, 2008, 02:54:25 PM
[quote name=\'MikeK\' post=\'193906\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 11:15 AM\']
Discarding Mr. Lemon's logic since I don't think it's accurate and it has too many holes,[/quote]
Um, how so? What I laid out was the BEST mathematical scenario given the limited empirical data we have to work with (number of $10K space lands (though I'll allow that "how many times did the Wild Card make it to the end" is probably a better empirical jumping-off point), times three, divided by 24), and then said that because of other factors (keeping the wedge to the end, winning the game, solving the bonus puzzle) the true odds were WAY worse than even that.

So please tell me how that's a) not accurate when I never intended it to be so in the first place, and b) where the holes are in that logic when all I said was "and the true odds are even worse than what I laid out."
Title: Fall '08 GS prediction thread...
Post by: BrandonFG on August 13, 2008, 03:23:06 PM
[quote name=\'weaklink75\' post=\'193907\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 02:19 PM\']
[quote name=\'parliboy\' post=\'193904\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 01:23 PM\']

Yes, because we already know about some that will.  Pay attention to the news, my friend.
[/quote]

I probably should have been more specific...I meant to say a show on one of the Big 4 3/4 networks (CW is a half a network at best, My Network TV is a 1/4 of one...)
[/quote]
In that case, the answer remains yes; Opportunity Knocks premieres in September. I'll guess that there will be at least one for each of the other "Big 4" networks.
Title: Fall '08 GS prediction thread...
Post by: MikeK on August 13, 2008, 03:25:26 PM
[quote name=\'clemon79\' post=\'193911\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 02:54 PM\']
[quote name=\'MikeK\' post=\'193906\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 11:15 AM\']
Discarding Mr. Lemon's logic since I don't think it's accurate and it has too many holes,[/quote]
Um, how so?[/quote]
Not everybody who wins the $10K space went to the bonus puzzle.  The Wild Card comparison is a better yardstick for determining how many people could play for the million.  Speaking of that, I forgot that the Wild Card is a regular wedge while the million is a sliver.  Thanks for the correction, Mr. Armadillo.
Title: Fall '08 GS prediction thread...
Post by: J.R. on August 13, 2008, 03:48:46 PM
[quote name=\'weaklink75\' post=\'193894\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 11:13 AM\']1- YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on Wheel of Fortune this season.
2- YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on WWTBAM this season.
3- YES or NO- DoND will give away the top prize in a NORMAL game (no extra top prize case gimmicks) in either Syndicated or primetime this season.
4- YES or NO- Someone will win at least $500,000 in normal gameplay on J! this season.
5- YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on EITHER Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader or Don't Forget the Lyrics this season.
6-YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on EITHER Million Dollar Password or TPIR MDS...
7- YES or NO- At least one NEW Game Show (one that has not aired on a major network before in this era) will debut during the season.[/quote]
1: I think there will be at least one person who will take the million wedge to the bonus round. But, someone actually winning the million? No. I'm sure we'll see a couple $100K winners though.

2: No. I'm sure we'll get at least one $250,000 or $500,000 winner though.

3: I'm sure someday we'll run into someone with the "Top prize or bust" attitude, push it to the end and have it there. (While I'll be praying he or she has the penny) So: Yes

4: No. I'm sure we'll get a champion who will approach 10 wins, with Alex Trebek making daily Ken Jennings comparisons. (I prefer to compare long time champions to Larissa Kelly, since she's better looking)

5: Fifth Grader: Yes Lyrics: No (I don't watch both, so I could honestly care less)

6: MDP: Yes, and his name will be Chad Mosher. ;-) TPIR MDS: If it happens, it'll be from a pricing game. I'll venture a "Yes" on that one.

7: Yes. Whatever it is: The top prize will be a million dollars, it'll feature a huge, dark, neon set, the host will be a forgotten actor or comedian who was big 14 years ago, the logo zooms in and out of a particular letter, the game will have buyout offers to quit, the safe haven will be $25,000, it'll be played with one contestant, a group of supporters who will sit on a bench, results after a commercial break, an often-repeated gameplay catchphrase, attractive models and it'll take 17 hours to record one hour long episode.
Title: Fall '08 GS prediction thread...
Post by: tpirfan28 on August 13, 2008, 03:55:23 PM
[quote name=\'J.R.\' post=\'193915\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 03:48 PM\']
7: Yes. Whatever it is: The top prize will be a million dollars, it'll feature a huge, dark, neon set, the host will be a forgotten actor or comedian who was big 14 years ago, the logo zooms in and out of a particular letter, the game will have buyout offers to quit, the safe haven will be $25,000, it'll be played with one contestant and will include often-repeated gameplay catchphrase.
[/quote]
...don't forget the "writing instrument du jour"!

And I'll bet we either:

a) don't see Match Game on TBS
b) Match Game premires after the ALCS, and we get unhuman amounts of MG promos during the game (I'm lookin' at you, Caliendo.)
Title: Fall '08 GS prediction thread...
Post by: Joe Mello on August 13, 2008, 04:04:43 PM
[quote name=\'J.R.\' post=\'193915\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 03:48 PM\']7: Yes. Whatever it is: The top prize will be a million dollars, it'll feature a huge, dark, neon set, the host will be a forgotten actor or comedian who was big 14 years ago, the logo zooms in and out of a particular letter, the game will have buyout offers to quit, the safe haven will be $25,000, it'll be played with one contestant, a group of supporters who will sit on a bench, results after a commercial break, an often-repeated gameplay catchphrase, attractive models and it'll take 17 hours to record one hour long episode.
[/quote]
Yet another reason why you'll probably find Hole in the Wall disappointing.
Title: Fall '08 GS prediction thread...
Post by: BrandonFG on August 13, 2008, 04:14:56 PM
[quote name=\'Joe Mello\' post=\'193917\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 04:04 PM\']
[quote name=\'J.R.\' post=\'193915\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 03:48 PM\']7: Yes. Whatever it is: The top prize will be a million dollars, it'll feature a huge, dark, neon set, the host will be a forgotten actor or comedian who was big 14 years ago, the logo zooms in and out of a particular letter, the game will have buyout offers to quit, the safe haven will be $25,000, it'll be played with one contestant, a group of supporters who will sit on a bench, results after a commercial break, an often-repeated gameplay catchphrase, attractive models and it'll take 17 hours to record one hour long episode.
[/quote]
Yet another reason why you'll probably find Hole in the Wall disappointing.
[/quote]
Except that show has Brooke Burns.

/Would hit it 9 days a week.
Title: Fall '08 GS prediction thread...
Post by: chad1m on August 13, 2008, 05:50:58 PM
[quote name=\'J.R.\' post=\'193915\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 03:48 PM\']6: MDP: Yes, and his name will be Chad Mosher. ;-)[/quote]I appreciate your faith, sir. :)
Title: Fall '08 GS prediction thread...
Post by: TimK2003 on August 13, 2008, 08:30:41 PM
[quote name=\'weaklink75\' post=\'193894\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 11:13 AM\']
3: I'm sure someday we'll run into someone with the "Top prize or bust" attitude, push it to the end and have it there. (While I'll be praying he or she has the penny) So: Yes
[/quote]

If it does comes down to the $.01 and $1M cases, the final banker offer is $500K, and the contestant still says NO DEAL, there should be an automatic rule that they leave with nothing but the title of "King of all Llamas" -- NO EXCEPTIONS!
Title: Fall '08 GS prediction thread...
Post by: TLEberle on August 13, 2008, 08:41:13 PM
[quote name=\'TimK2003\' post=\'193945\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 05:30 PM\']If it does comes down to the $.01 and $1M cases, the final banker offer is $500K, and the contestant still says NO DEAL, there should be an automatic rule that they leave with nothing but the title of "King of all Llamas" -- NO EXCEPTIONS![/quote]Wow.

/Nonplussed.
Title: Fall '08 GS prediction thread...
Post by: Dbacksfan12 on August 14, 2008, 03:07:45 AM
[quote name=\'TimK2003\' post=\'193945\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 07:30 PM\']
If it does comes down to the $.01 and $1M cases, the final banker offer is $500K, and the contestant still says NO DEAL, there should be an automatic rule that they leave with nothing but the title of "King of all Llamas" -- [/quote]What an honor to bestow on someone who has the million.
Title: Fall '08 GS prediction thread...
Post by: Game Show Man on August 14, 2008, 04:53:01 AM
[quote name=\'Modor\' post=\'194012\' date=\'Aug 14 2008, 12:07 AM\']
[quote name=\'TimK2003\' post=\'193945\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 07:30 PM\']
If it does comes down to the $.01 and $1M cases, the final banker offer is $500K, and the contestant still says NO DEAL, there should be an automatic rule that they leave with nothing but the title of "King of all Llamas" -- [/quote]What an honor to bestow on someone who has the million.
[/quote]
Especially when the "llama" is an animal that usually only appears on WWTBAM.  :D
Title: Fall '08 GS prediction thread...
Post by: TLEberle on August 14, 2008, 09:12:08 PM
[quote name=\'weaklink75\' post=\'193894\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 08:13 AM\']1- YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on Wheel of Fortune this season.[/quote]Doubtful. The longest of long shots.

Quote
2- YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on WWTBAM this season.

(I also say yes- it's been a while, I think we're probably due for one- but all the rules changes do give me a little pause)
What does the length of time since a win have to do with anything? There've been three contestants who have had a go since the first season, and each of them passed. The rules don't seem like they'll make a $1m win any easier, the questions make it hard enough to reach that last level.

Quote
5- YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on EITHER Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader or Don't Forget the Lyrics this season.
Given the absolutely dumb rules those shows employ for the final question, I doubt it.

Quote
6-YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on EITHER Million Dollar Password or TPIR MDS...
This depends greatly. If TPIR doesn't let in the guy who helped the two $1m/DSW winners, then I doubt it. If he comes in wearing Groucho glasses, they're screwed.

[quote name=\'J.R.\' post=\'193915\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 12:48 PM\']4: No. I'm sure we'll get a champion who will approach 10 wins, with Alex Trebek making daily Ken Jennings comparisons. (I prefer to compare long time champions to Larissa Kelly, since she's better looking)[/quote]I like the cut of your jib, sir. If you wish to join me in my bunk, I'll send over a key card.
Title: Fall '08 GS prediction thread...
Post by: Jumpondees on August 16, 2008, 01:26:12 AM
[quote name=\'weaklink75\' post=\'193894\' date=\'Aug 13 2008, 11:13 AM\']1- YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on Wheel of Fortune this season.
2- YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on WWTBAM this season.
3- YES or NO- DoND will give away the top prize in a NORMAL game (no extra top prize case gimmicks) in either Syndicated or primetime this season.
4- YES or NO- Someone will win at least $500,000 in normal gameplay on J! this season.
5- YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on EITHER Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader or Don't Forget the Lyrics this season.
6-YES or NO- At least one person wins the million on EITHER Million Dollar Password or TPIR MDS...
7- YES or NO- At least one NEW Game Show (one that has not aired on a major network before in this era) will debut during the season.[/quote]

1 - YES - And to continue the joke from when the very first person hit the $100K in the bonus round, instead of push brooms, they shoud give Pat and Vanna Shop-Vacs to clean up the (over-exaggerating here) two tons of confetti they'll have to shoot off to make a $100K win look passe.

2 - YES - It's been way too long, and I think the right random person, at the right random time, will get the right random stack of questions to make us all ask if the writers were dumbing down the game just enough to get a winner.

3 - This is a split answer, I'll say NO to the Primetime, but YES to Syndication, and I'll lay odds that the Syndication winner will be in May sweeps, at the end of the season.

4 - NO - Look at how many have done it since the 5-day rule was abolished.  It will take another "special" contestant along the skills and abilities of KenJen for it to happen again.

5 - I'll say YES to 5th Grader, and NO to Lyrics.  To me, it seems like they cast the dumbest of the dumb sometimes on 5th Grader, but I think someone will come in just under the producer's radar to hit them where it hurts.  On Lyrics, it's going to take a musical genius for someone to get the million, because I'd hate to see what they will make someone do to win it.

6 - I'm going to say YES to both. On MDP, I hope when it's done, it's with Betty White.  On TPIR, I'll say it will happen twice.  IMO, I say that if they are going to have two chances to win a million during the show, that the showcase round requirement be set back to the old DSW rule of $100.  That way, there is still a decent chance that they can give away a million during one of the pricing games, but in the event someone wins that million and makes it to the showcase, CBS doesn't run the risk of having someone walk off with over $2 million by hitting a DSW with a $500 or $250 requirement.

7 - I'm going to say NO here, but like MikeK, I also have developed an affinity to the Brit's Golden Balls, but I don't ever see that show hitting a major network or syndication.  I think it would be best served on say GSN or maybe TBS with a good funny host that would work well with Match Game if that takes off.  Another show I've seen on YouTube that I've liked is 19 Keys.  I thnk 19 Keys could be a good show that would fit right in GSN's budget.
Title: Fall '08 GS prediction thread...
Post by: MikeK on August 16, 2008, 02:07:16 AM
[quote name=\'Jumpondees\' post=\'194261\' date=\'Aug 16 2008, 01:26 AM\']Another show I've seen on YouTube that I've liked is 19 Keys.  I thnk 19 Keys could be a good show that would fit right in GSN's budget.[/quote]
I took a peek at the 19 Keys video on YouTube.  Wow.  Even though it was just a six minute clip, it was a challenging and action packed six minutes.

I still think Golden Balls has a better chance of getting here because of the absolute lack of intelligence (read: luck) factor and because Endemol is behind it.
Title: Fall '08 GS prediction thread...
Post by: Craig Karlberg on August 16, 2008, 03:21:04 AM
Here's how I see things on the game show front in 2008-2009:

1. No.  The odds of landing on that wedge are long enough as it is without adding the fact that you HAVE to guess the right letter, solve the puzzle, hold onto it & win the game is just too much to ask let alone solving the bonus round puzzle for that million.

2. It depends on what time limits are being used as well as how the Double Dip & Ask the Expert will factor into this.  Even though it's overdue, I'm leaning towards a No on this one,

3.  Split decision.  Yes to Syndie, No to Primetime.  The network version will continue its gimmicks for as long as the show lasts.

4.  No.  Unless we get a second comming of Ken Jennings, I doubt it.  Maybe in 3 ywars.

5.  No on both counts though it could come from 5th Grader this time.  As for Lyrics, too much of a crapshoot.  Would it be anything OTHER than a #1 song?  I doubt it.

6.  Definitely Yes to both.  TPIR did it 4 times this past season, so why stop now?  As for MDP, the new $250K safe haven will give players every oppurtunity to do it.

7.  Outside of Oppurtunity Knocks & Hole In The Wall, I don't see any new game show hits this upcomming season.  Therefore, a resounding NO!
Title: Fall '08 GS prediction thread...
Post by: Mr. Armadillo on August 17, 2008, 02:50:38 PM
[quote name=\'TLEberle\' post=\'194109\' date=\'Aug 14 2008, 08:12 PM\']This depends greatly. If TPIR doesn't let in the guy who helped the two $1m/DSW winners, then I doubt it. If he comes in wearing Groucho glasses, they're screwed.[/quote]
Just the first one...they were already delegating Voltron to the back by the time Michael won his million.  

I, however, am still quite welcome at the studio... ;-)
Title: Fall '08 GS prediction thread...
Post by: uncamark on August 19, 2008, 06:26:14 PM
Don't we already know the answer in part to number 3?
Title: Fall '08 GS prediction thread...
Post by: Robert Hutchinson on August 19, 2008, 06:35:28 PM
[quote name=\'uncamark\' post=\'194525\' date=\'Aug 19 2008, 06:26 PM\']Don't we already know the answer in part to number 3?[/quote]
#3 has a very specific wording, so no, I don't think we do. (Unless I'm out of the loop.)
Title: Fall '08 GS prediction thread...
Post by: Brig Bother on August 19, 2008, 06:58:36 PM
[quote name=\'MikeK\' post=\'194264\' date=\'Aug 16 2008, 07:07 AM\']
I took a peek at the 19 Keys video on YouTube.  Wow.  Even though it was just a six minute clip, it was a challenging and action packed six minutes.[/quote]

I bloody loved 19 Keys, it was the first quiz since Weakest Link I wanted a crack at because it looked like fun - not flawless by any means but quite tense and exciting. Unfortunately it never got a second series. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzTYWIBYq80 (http://\"http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzTYWIBYq80\"). I would ifne it pretty unlikely to sell abroad seeing as it's a few years old now, but Objective Productions are on the ascendent in the UK so...

Quote
I still think Golden Balls has a better chance of getting here because of the absolute lack of intelligence (read: luck) factor and because Endemol is behind it.

This was meant to be being sold around the world but I don't think anybody has actually made a local version yet. Remember, despite what you may have heard or read it's really only moderately successful over here - cheapish and does great for its late afternoon timeslot but not nearly as great as Deal or No Deal was doing an hour earlier on a more minority channel.
Title: Fall '08 GS prediction thread...
Post by: Brig Bother on August 19, 2008, 08:03:24 PM
Quote
I still think Golden Balls has a better chance of getting here because of the absolute lack of intelligence (read: luck) factor and because Endemol is behind it.

Also, I think people rather miss the point when it comes to Endemol's luck based shows. Yes, they seem a rather unintelligent but the reason they're quite popular is that in between the luck based aspects, actual real people have to make actual real conscious decisions (in most Endemol shows you're not allowed to decide which option you're going to go for by flipping a coin, say, it's got to be a decision you come to yourselves) and have to live with the actual real consequences of those decisions. It's simple, but it tends to be dramatic and it tends to work.
Title: Fall '08 GS prediction thread...
Post by: tpirfan28 on August 19, 2008, 08:05:40 PM
[quote name=\'Brig Bother\' post=\'194531\' date=\'Aug 19 2008, 06:58 PM\']
[quote name=\'MikeK\' post=\'194264\' date=\'Aug 16 2008, 07:07 AM\']
I took a peek at the 19 Keys video on YouTube.  Wow.  Even though it was just a six minute clip, it was a challenging and action packed six minutes.[/quote]

I bloody loved 19 Keys, it was the first quiz since Weakest Link I wanted a crack at because it looked like fun - not flawless by any means but quite tense and exciting. Unfortunately it never got a second series. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzTYWIBYq80 (http://\"http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzTYWIBYq80\"). I would ifne it pretty unlikely to sell abroad seeing as it's a few years old now, but Objective Productions are on the ascendent in the UK so...[/quote]
Holy crap.  That six minutes was absolutely awesome.  That's a show that I definitely would tune into every freaking time it was on TV.
Title: Fall '08 GS prediction thread...
Post by: Joe Mello on August 19, 2008, 09:24:34 PM
[quote name=\'Brig Bother\' post=\'194536\' date=\'Aug 19 2008, 08:03 PM\']Also, I think people rather miss the point when it comes to Endemol's luck based shows. Yes, they seem a rather unintelligent but the reason they're quite popular is that in between the luck based aspects, actual real people have to make actual real conscious decisions...and have to live with the actual real consequences...[/quote]
Then we must count at least the US part of Endemol as "people who rather miss the point", because the contestants often don't come off as actual or real.  

This also means we have to consider Endemol as people, but ymmv on that.